The International Financial Crisis: an Expert Survey

The advent of the international financial crisis, and of its effects on the economy, all the world now face the question how to manage the crisis and what measures to implement to restore a normal condition. In this paper we present and discuss the results and implications of an international expert survey. Our target is to understand the perception with regards to several aspects of the international financial crisis and some possible future implications for policy makers’ authorities.international financial crisis; subprime; expert survey

Short-term leprosy forecasting from an expert opinion survey.

We conducted an expert survey of leprosy (Hansen's Disease) and neglected tropical disease experts in February 2016. Experts were asked to forecast the next year of reported cases for the world, for the top three countries, and for selected states and territories of India. A total of 103 respondents answered at least one forecasting question. We elicited lower and upper confidence bounds. Comparing these results to regression and exponential smoothing, we found no evidence that any forecasting method outperformed the others. We found evidence that experts who believed it was more likely to achieve global interruption of transmission goals and disability reduction goals had higher error scores for India and Indonesia, but lower for Brazil. Even for a disease whose epidemiology changes on a slow time scale, forecasting exercises such as we conducted are simple and practical. We believe they can be used on a routine basis in public health

Forecasting elections using expert surveys: an application to U.S. presidential elections

Prior research offers a mixed view of the value of expert surveys for long-term election forecasts. On the positive side, experts have more information about the candidates and issues than voters do. On the negative side, experts all have access to the same information. Based on prior literature and on our experiences with the 2004 presidential election and the 2008 campaign so far, we have reason to believe that a simple expert survey (the Nominal Group Technique) is preferable to Delphi. Our survey of experts in American politics was quite accurate in the 2004 election. Following the same procedure, we have assembled a new panel of experts to forecast the 2008 presidential election. Here we report the results of the first survey, and compare our experts’ forecasts with predictions by the Iowa Electronic Market .forecasting; elections; expert surveys; Delphi

Expert system verification and validation survey, delivery 4

The purpose is to determine the state-of-the-practice in Verification and Validation (V and V) of Expert Systems (ESs) on current NASA and Industry applications. This is the first task of a series which has the ultimate purpose of ensuring that adequate ES V and V tools and techniques are available for Space Station Knowledge Based Systems development. The strategy for determining the state-of-the-practice is to check how well each of the known ES V and V issues are being addressed and to what extent they have impacted the development of ESs

Surveying Turkish high school and university student attitudes and approaches to physics problem solving

Student attitudes and approaches to problem solving can impact how well they learn physics. Prior research in the US using a validated Attitude and Approaches to Problem Solving (AAPS) survey suggests that there are major differences between students in introductory physics and astronomy courses and physics experts in terms of their attitudes and approaches to physics problem solving. Here we discuss the validation, administration and analysis of data for the Turkish version of the AAPS survey for high school and university students in Turkey. After the validation and administration of the Turkish version of the survey, the analysis of the data was conducted by grouping the data by grade level, school type, and gender. While there are no statistically significant differences between the averages of various groups on the survey, overall, the university students in Turkey were more expert-like than vocational high school students. On an item by item basis, there are statistically differences between the averages of the groups on many items. For example, on average, the university students demonstrated less expert-like attitudes about the role of equations and formulas in problem solving, in solving difficult problems, and in knowing when the solution is not correct, whereas they displayed more expert-like attitudes and approaches on items related to meta-cognition in physics problem solving. A principal component analysis on the data yields item clusters into which the student responses on various survey items can be grouped. A comparison of the responses of the Turkish and American university students enrolled in algebra-based introductory physics courses shows that on more than half of the items, the responses of these two groups were statistically significantly different with the US students on average responding to the items in more expert-like manner.Comment: 16 pages, Keywords: Physics Education Research, Attitudes and approaches to problem solving, Turkish students, American students, factor analysis, principal component analysi

Medical Expert Systems Survey

There is an increase interest in the area of Artificial Intelligence in general and expert systems in particular. Expert systems are rapidly growing technology. Expert system is a branch of Artificial Intelligence which is having a great impact on many fields of human life. Expert systems use human expert knowledge to solve complex problems in many fields such as Health, science, engineering, business, and weather forecasting. Organizations employing the technology of expert system have seen an increase in the efficiency and the quality. An expert system is computer program that emulates the behavior of a human expert. The expert system represents knowledge solicited from human expert as data or production rules within a computer program. These rules and data can be used to solve complex problems. In this paper, we give an overview of this technology and will discuss a survey on many papers done in health using expert system

Expert system verification and validation survey. Delivery 3: Recommendations

The purpose is to determine the state-of-the-practice in Verification and Validation (V and V) of Expert Systems (ESs) on current NASA and Industry applications. This is the first task of a series which has the ultimate purpose of ensuring that adequate ES V and V tools and techniques are available for Space Station Knowledge Based Systems development. The strategy for determining the state-of-the-practice is to check how well each of the known ES V and V issues are being addressed and to what extent they have impacted the development of ESs